Olympics 🧗‍♀️ Post Game Show

We deserve more intelligent conversations about climbing just like other sports get during the Olympics on Sport Center or what have you. I have been enjoying a lot of the content out there (shouts Nugget Pod). Here is mine.

Women 

A fantastic competition waiting to happen. We are living in an era where we have a living 🐐 in Janja Gambret. She is the most winningest climber of all time. Some complain that there is nothing to watch but a competition for second place, but I think that the undercurrent of what must be going on with Janja herself and her competition plays out an amazing drama for us to witness. Just like how the Golden State Warriors arguably revitalized the NBA.

Vegas Odds 

After seeing who made finals this is my prediction of how the final results should come out. Rather than giving a podium prediction, instead I pretend that I am bookey and give moneyline style odds. Why? Because you know what makes sports more fun? Having money attached to outcomes completely out of your control.

1. -900, Janja Gambret - She is (beyond) the obvious choice. You don’t need to be a statistician, fan or literate to know she had the best odds.
2. +100, Oriane Bertone - Hometown advantage. Arguably the most promising talent since Janja herself. She is strong, tall enough, coordinated and has some of the best game time performance. She won the 2023 European Championships and had a decent performance at the 2023 World Championships taking 6th. Also, she is still relatively young at 19, and her trajectory is crazy. She completed V14 at age 12 and placed second at her first world cup at age 16. Since then she has sustained a high output. Also, she her injuries are relatively nonexistent. 
3. +250, Brooke Raboutou - This American’s pedigree is outstanding. She has competed at the Olympic level previously in 2020 taking 4th. Although some questioned her readiness due to a lackluster bouldering World Cup at Salt Lake in 2024, she dominated in the Olympic Qualifying Series (OQS). I think her upbringing under Didier and [Robin Raboutou](Robyn Erbesfield-Raboutou who both had excellent competitive climbing careers themselves has prepared Brooke for this moment. She has a history of performing well under pressure as a youth athlete and beyond. This take is obviously biased as I am American and a huge fan of Brooke in particular. 
4. +265, Ai Mori - This is a contentious choice putting her below Brooke… She is very good and has been (arguably) more dominant than Brooke on the World Cup Circuit. She has been performing well in the last couple years, but her only Bouldering World Cup medal being a bronze in Wujiang 2023 makes me give the edge to Brooke. Also, because of the nature of the Olympics as a showcase event, the setters may want to provide problems that are more gymnastic that will not suit Ai’s more controlled style. 
5. +400, Oceana MacKenzie - I think she is drastically underrated. The level of talent necessary to perform at a World Cup finalist level while coming from a place where competition climbing is under-supported like AUS demonstrates Ms. Mackenzie’s prowess. There is a good climbing dynasty down under for sure, but you are playing yourself if you don’t believe that Europeans, Japanese and to a lesser extent Americans have an advantage over other countries.  All that being said, Oceana has been ramping as the Olympic approaches with a 199.9/200 score at the Oceania Championships in 2023. Granted, the event was probably under-cooked, but I am rooting for her. 
6. +800, Jessica Pilz - Although her accomplishments cannot be forgotten with both combined and lead World Championship golds to her name, I think that she has looked underwhelming coming into the games. Injuries in the last few years have plagued her from making substantial progress in her conditioning, and competitive results have reflected this. While she still makes finals consistently, she has been a shadow of her previous self. Leaving room for the younger generation to take podiums where she once was.  
7. +850, Emile McNeice - A relatively unknown climber coming into the games, she had an amazing run in the OQS. She is untested against the likes of Janja and company. While I wish Emile the best of luck I doubt she has the depth to come away with more that a decent showing in the final.
8. +855, Chaehyun Seo - While she has many medals to her name and is one of three climbers to have ever dethroned the queen (Janja) in lead, in recent memory her performance has waned rather than waxed. In some ways I hope I am wrong and that Chaehyun will make a resurgence when it matters most, but she wont. 

Honorable mentions 

• Natalia Grossman - She should have made the finals. By all measures she is an A to S tier climber. She deserved to be in the final. Whether it was headspace alone or a lingering injury. I am beyond disappointed to not see the fight she could have brought to the Olympic final. 
• Miho Nonaka - Miho was a dominant figure in the World Cups and in the last Olympics taking the silver only to Janja out competing her countrywoman and the legend Akiyo Noguchi. I am sad to not see a rematch. Akiyo’s career has had its ups and downs with injury. My understanding is at the present she is healthy, but you cannot downplay the cumulative effect that prolonged stretches of injury play on the training of an athlete. 
• Laura Rogora - Obviously, her story is an unfortunate mismanagement of talent. Laura could have been one of the best climbers of this generation, but her inability to have power is obviously correlated with the lack of muscle necessary to be resilient in the sport.

Results 

Results courtesy of ifsc .

Postgame Analysis

WOW! Just wow. The commentary was amazing. Some intern at NBC randomly listened to anything Matt Grooms has done ever for five minutes and correctly identified him as someone’s nephew because that’s the only possible reason he still has a job. Instead the network found professions to commentate the event. Petra Klingler in particular had the unenviable job of threading the needle of talking to hard core fans (like me) and some deep south NASCAR watching … Let’s not go there. Anyways, I was blown away by her ability to speak accessibly and intelligently. 

The route setting was outstanding. The setters created excellent separation while also putting on one hell of a show. Big shout out to Garret Gregor who I believe chiefed the event. Some say that Ai was done a disservice through many large moves, but considering that the setting crew also had the likes of Maragda Gabarre I doubt that height and reach were not duly considered. Also, recall Brooke only has one inch on Ai, at 5’2” and 5’1” respectively. Thus, in my opinion, the lack of a good result in Boulder falls directly on Ai and her team for not preparing for large moves. 

From the competitors themselves, I found the event gripping. I completely underestimated the pressure that Oriane must have been experiencing. She climbed quite stiff, and I think this led her to under perform. Brooke exceeded all expectations as far as I am concerned while Janja lived up to the highest expectations possible. Both climbers were an obvious step above the competition. I really feel like Ms. Pilz outdid herself as well. What a comeback!

Men

The men’s field was a nice contrast to the women’s in that there has not been a sustained dominance from a single male climber in nearly a decade. That being said the old guard that is present is quite accomplished and still vying for their place on the podium with Adam Ondra, Jakob Schubert, Tomoa Narasaki and to a lesser extent Alex Megos. The young guns are on the rise with the likes of Toby Roberts, Sorato Anraku, Do-hyun Lee and Colin Duffy. This set the stage for a big show!

Vegas Odds

1. -120, Sorato Anraku - Winning both three lead, two bouldering, and a combined world cup in 2023 amongst other accolades Sorato demonstrated himself a real threat to take the crown. He faltered in the combined event at the World Championships last year allowing Tomoa to qualify for the Olympics ahead of him. With a very competitive Japanese roster, this allowed doubt to trickle into everyone’s mind that Sorato would not even compete in the games, but he then secured his seat with a dominant performance at the Asian Games. That all being said, he is without a doubt a legend in the making.
2. -110, Jacob Schubert - Arguably he is the most well decorated male climber to be competing at the games. He has more medals than I am willing to count. Also, his outdoor ascents are at the maximum established grade in both bouldering and sport, and he is the only person alive who can say that. Many consider the three discipline 2023 Olympic podium results to be unrepresentative and that Jakob deserved the Gold because Speed played a spoiler role in this event.
3. -100, Toby Roberts -  Toby is another young star this time hailing from Great Britain. His rise through the World Cup Circuit in 2023 was one to behold. While his dominance is slightly overshadowed by the likes of Sorato who surpassed Roberts’s medal count, there were a variety of factors including Roberts selecting to not compete in some events for the larger goal of Olympic preparation. I have a good feeling about him. 
4. 0, Alberto Ginés López- My friends I have joked that we sold all our S&P and put it on Ginés López 📈. He apparently has a talent for peaking at the right time. His medal count and overall performance in competition outside of the games leaves much to be desired. In my mind he came out of nowhere to win in 2020, and then again this year is surprisingly competitive from what I can tell. 
5. +100, Colin Duffy - I want to put the American higher on the list, but I don’t really believe he is (currently) in the form to take gold. He is by all measures capable of such a performance, but his showing in Salt Lake this year was underwhelming as well as a less than optimal World Cup season in 2023.
6. +110, Adam Ondra - The best climber of all time, but perhaps not the best climber in 2024. Ondra’s accomplishments in the sport on and off the rock are unparalleled. The world’s best today are still trying to repeat all the route he has done outside, and when Ondra deemed to show up to competition events (in his prime) he was unbeatable. In the last five years both the competition has caught up to Mr. Ondra, and he has seen a slight decline in his own output. 
7. +400, Paul Jenft - Paul is a part of a strong contingent of young French male climbers who are routinely making finals in the World Cups, but compared to Sam Avezou or Mejdi Schalck his accomplishments are more modest with only a single bouldering World Cup bronze to his name. His body morphology is far outside the norm (standing 6’2”) which may make his time in competition more unpredictable. He often finds “his own beta” to make his way to the top. 
8. +450, Hamish McArthur - While Hamish is quite the fun name and a good lead climber to boot, he is a relatively inconsistent climber in finals and has not been on the podium in three years. There is an argument to expect him to outperform Paul, but I think that youth and momentum are on Paul’s side. 

Honorable Mentions

• Tomoa Narasaki- Such a huge bummer to not have him in the finals. While Tomoa has accomplished much in his time, I do think that much of his potential was not realized. He should have podiumed at the 2020 games. He should have more World Cup and Championships golds to his name. His style and ability (at one time) were next level. This is truly a huge missed opportunity for him to demonstrate why he is the best of the best. 
• Alexander Megos - While Alex is without a doubt one of the best outdoor sport climbers of his generation, competition has never been his strongest discipline. My main commentary is that Alex has been outspokenly critical of the combined format and Olympic climbing in general. He has some good points from my perspective, but from an optics standpoint he comes off a sore and bitter loser. He has the physical ability and the talent to excel at both bouldering and sport like all the other top dogs, and he has not realized his potential. That is on him not the event. 
• Do-hyun Lee - With an impressive run in OQS, I felt that Mr. Lee was rapidly improving. There was an outside chance for him to fully dark-horse his way to the top. He is young and will have many more opportunities to shine. 

Results 

Courtesy of ifsc .

Post Game Analysis 

Again, it is incredible as a fan to have professionals run the stream. The production was on point and the commentary was a step above the norm. I also appreciate how these streams captured the intangibles of the event like the atmosphere and the moments when the athlete knew they won or made the podium. Overall, the production was so good that I forgot it was even a factor. This is how it should be. Instead of yelling at the YouTube because the cameraman and editor are perverts, I just could sit back and enjoy the sport. Were the commentators trying to please me in particular, no. Still, I think that they did a decent job. In some ways, I wish the commentators did not (re)explain rules at all because much more complicated sports like Basketball or Football never explain themselves. This invites the watcher to educate themselves and become an active participant by engaging with the sport through other media. This is a debatable approach with a fledgling sport like climbing, but I ask you, did anyone really explain how surfing was scored on stream? 🧐 Something to think about. 

Beyond the production, the competition was real! Truly a fight for the top spots. The setting complemented the athletes who were present. I honestly have no complaints on that front, only praise. The athletes themselves fought their hardest, and there were no big flops as far as I’m concerned. Seeing Toby take gold feels like a passing of the torch from the ents to the young bucks. Similarly, Sorato had a great showing pushing Jakob further down the podium. On the subject of the younger climbers, I thought that Colin had a decent showing, but lacked some energy on the final lead climb to put himself on the podium. Colin has to be one of the best physical specimens of our sport, and unfortunately that has translated to him having a style on lead in particular that requires him to have a lot of muscle engagement on most moves. This can lead to fatigue. There have been cases where this works to his advantage, but in this case his style coupled with the pressure of the moment caused him to gas out near the end of the lead route. 

This Olympics also set the stage for a gripping overstory. Who is the best climber of a generation? Jakob Schubert or Adam Ondra? Overall, Ondra had a disappointing finals, and Jakob performed well. If Jakob had taken gold, I think there would be more to the G.O.A.T. conversation. As it stands, I think it is clear that Jakob is having a longer tail end of his career. This is demonstrated through competition results, but also he won the race to the first ascent of B.I.G. and complete a confirmed 9A boulder, Alphane while Ondra has yet to send either. There are accomplishments of Ondra’s that speak volumes, but they are now more than five years away. I think it is important to remember that they are comparable in age, and in fact Jakob is older by two years at thirty three years of age. I don’t necessarily believe that just because Ondra is petering out at the moment indicates that he is finished contributing to the sport, but his mindset seems to be shifting. At least in his telling, I think he views his body as not being the way it was and that he has limited time to accomplish specific goals. I am still rooting for him to make a resurgence nonetheless. 

Takeaways

Honestly, I am blown away. I definitely come into the Olympics every time being excited and brimming with emotion, so I was poised to fall in love with whatever occurred. Still, I think this may be the best climbing competition in history. From the production to the setting to the actual performance of the athletes. I could not have asked for more. 

The combined format may have had its last moment because at the 2028 Las Angeles games all three disciplines will have their own event. This is a shame. Just like Gymnastics or Track and Field (Decathlon), I think there is space in the sport for both generalists and specialists. In the history of the sport, diversity of the climbing accomplishments has always been qualitatively weighed. Many times, I have personally received flack for only focusing on bouldering. There is truth in this line of thinking. Being excellent in multiple disciplines, especially simultaneously, requires a level of athleticism few can manage. I hope to see the combined format have its day again (of course without speed climbing which is nonsense 😛).

Acknowledgements

This is not just my brain child 🧠👶. Thoughtful conversations, edits and ideas were contributed by: Will Anglin, Connor Schwartz, Timothy Rummel, Ethan Rummel, and Sam Struthers

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